New-Start Programs Highlight Long-Term Outlook in Light Military Rotorcraft Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Airbus’ H160 selected for France’s hélicoptère interarmées léger (HIL) effort. Photo: Airbus

Data generated by Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System 4.0 indicate that a number of planned new-start acquisition programs will kick-start demand in the long term in the light military rotorcraft market.  A total of 1,630 light military rotorcraft is projected to be produced during the 15-year timeframe between 2018 and 2032.  The value of this production is estimated at $24.4 billion in constant 2018 U.S. dollars.  In general, we define a light military rotorcraft as having a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 pounds). Continue reading

Emergency Medical Services Helping Drive Civil Helicopter Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

H135 Helicopter Emergency Medical Service rescue action in Brodnica, Poland . Source: Wikimedia Commons

The helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) sector has been one of the bright spots for civil rotorcraft manufacturers at a time when the industry has tended to struggle due to very low demand from the key offshore oil and gas sector.  Solid demand for new rotorcraft from emergency medical services (EMS) operators has helped to soften somewhat the steep decline in the civil turbine helicopter market experienced since 2013, and is now helping to kickstart recovery in the market. Continue reading

Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market Stabilizing

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Boeing and Sikorsky’s Future Vertical Lift (FVL) concept. Source: Boeing

Data from Forecast International’s unique Platinum Forecast System underscores the importance of the medium/heavy military rotorcraft segment to the world’s rotorcraft manufacturers.  Over the next 15 years, from 2018 to 2032, the medium/heavy military sector will be the largest segment of the world rotorcraft market in terms of monetary value, and second only to the light civil rotorcraft segment in terms of unit production. Continue reading

Light Military Rotorcraft Market to Stabilize Over Long Term

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Bell UH-1Y

Utilizing data from its innovative Platinum Forecast System® 3.1, Forecast International projects that a total of 1,610 light military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  The value of this production is estimated at $22.2 billion in constant 2017 U.S. dollars.  In general, we define a military rotorcraft as light when it has a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

Higher Defense Budgets Likely to Give Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market a Lift

by Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

V-280 Concept for Future Vertical Lift (FVL). Source: Bell Helicopter

Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System 3.1 indicates that a total of 6,175  medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  The value of this production is estimated at $158.4 billion (in FY17 dollars).  We define a medium/heavy military rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

Bell 206L4 LongRanger Termination Makes Sense

By Douglas Royce, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Bell 206L-4 Long Ranger.

Bell Helicopter plans to terminate production of the 206L4 LongRanger during the first half of 2017, according to a report by Flight International.

The seven-seat LongRanger remained in production long after production of its smaller sibling, the iconic five-seat Bell 206B, ended in 2010, but sales have been declining for years. Continue reading

Short-Term Growth, Longer-Term Decline Projected for Light Military Rotorcraft Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

H145M in flight (© Copyright Airbus Helicopters, Charles Abarr)

Airbus Helicopters H145M in flight (© Copyright Airbus Helicopters, Charles Abarr)

Forecast International is projecting that 1,241 light military rotorcraft will be produced by manufacturers during the 10-year period from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production is estimated at $19.7 billion, as calculated in constant 2016 U.S. dollars.  We define a light military rotorcraft as one having a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

World Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market on the Decline

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Bell Boeing V-22

Bell Boeing V-22

Forecast International expects that 4,791 medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production, as calculated in constant FY16 U.S. dollars, is $115.7 billion.

Through most of the 10-year forecast period, the market will experience declining annual production.  Yearly production is expected to decline nearly steadily from 578 units in 2016 to 410 units in 2025.  Annual production value during this timeframe is expected to follow a somewhat similar trend.  Annual value is projected to decrease from $14.1 billion in 2016 to $10.4 billion in 2025, with this decline interrupted only by a brief two-year period of growth in 2022-2023. Continue reading

AVIC’s Helicopter Offerings Cover the Civil & Military Spectrums

by Carter Palmer, Helicopter Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

Z-9 Helicopter. Source: Harbin

Z-9 Helicopter. Source: Harbin

The recent agreement signed by Russian Helicopters and China’s Avicopter to develop a heavy-lift rotorcraft bolsters the already long-standing ties between the two countries. Avicopter and its predecessors have produced rotorcraft since the late 1950s, and this cooperation with Russian know-how should make for a successful partnership. Continue reading

Changes in Competitive Landscape Mark Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

V-280. Source - Bell Helicopter

V-280. Source – Bell Helicopter

In its latest study on the medium/heavy military rotorcraft market, Forecast International is projecting that 4,744 such rotorcraft will be produced from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production is estimated at $115 billion in constant 2016 U.S. dollars.  In general, we define a medium/heavy military rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb) or greater.

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