Light Military Rotorcraft Market to Stabilize Over Long Term

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Bell UH-1Y

Utilizing data from its innovative Platinum Forecast System® 3.1, Forecast International projects that a total of 1,610 light military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  The value of this production is estimated at $22.2 billion in constant 2017 U.S. dollars.  In general, we define a military rotorcraft as light when it has a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

Higher Defense Budgets Likely to Give Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market a Lift

by Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

V-280 Concept for Future Vertical Lift (FVL). Source: Bell Helicopter

Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System 3.1 indicates that a total of 6,175  medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  The value of this production is estimated at $158.4 billion (in FY17 dollars).  We define a medium/heavy military rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

Bell 206L4 LongRanger Termination Makes Sense

By Douglas Royce, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Bell 206L-4 Long Ranger.

Bell Helicopter plans to terminate production of the 206L4 LongRanger during the first half of 2017, according to a report by Flight International.

The seven-seat LongRanger remained in production long after production of its smaller sibling, the iconic five-seat Bell 206B, ended in 2010, but sales have been declining for years. Continue reading

Short-Term Growth, Longer-Term Decline Projected for Light Military Rotorcraft Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

H145M in flight (© Copyright Airbus Helicopters, Charles Abarr)

Airbus Helicopters H145M in flight (© Copyright Airbus Helicopters, Charles Abarr)

Forecast International is projecting that 1,241 light military rotorcraft will be produced by manufacturers during the 10-year period from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production is estimated at $19.7 billion, as calculated in constant 2016 U.S. dollars.  We define a light military rotorcraft as one having a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

World Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market on the Decline

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Bell Boeing V-22

Bell Boeing V-22

Forecast International expects that 4,791 medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production, as calculated in constant FY16 U.S. dollars, is $115.7 billion.

Through most of the 10-year forecast period, the market will experience declining annual production.  Yearly production is expected to decline nearly steadily from 578 units in 2016 to 410 units in 2025.  Annual production value during this timeframe is expected to follow a somewhat similar trend.  Annual value is projected to decrease from $14.1 billion in 2016 to $10.4 billion in 2025, with this decline interrupted only by a brief two-year period of growth in 2022-2023. Continue reading

AVIC’s Helicopter Offerings Cover the Civil & Military Spectrums

by Carter Palmer, Helicopter Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

Z-9 Helicopter. Source: Harbin

Z-9 Helicopter. Source: Harbin

The recent agreement signed by Russian Helicopters and China’s Avicopter to develop a heavy-lift rotorcraft bolsters the already long-standing ties between the two countries. Avicopter and its predecessors have produced rotorcraft since the late 1950s, and this cooperation with Russian know-how should make for a successful partnership. Continue reading

Changes in Competitive Landscape Mark Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

V-280. Source - Bell Helicopter

V-280. Source – Bell Helicopter

In its latest study on the medium/heavy military rotorcraft market, Forecast International is projecting that 4,744 such rotorcraft will be produced from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production is estimated at $115 billion in constant 2016 U.S. dollars.  In general, we define a medium/heavy military rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb) or greater.

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Asia Increasingly Important for Light Military Rotorcraft Manufacturers

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Light Military Rotorcraft 2015-2024 Forecast. Source: Forecast International Platinum 2.0

Light Military Rotorcraft 2015-2024 Forecast. Source: Forecast International Platinum 2.0

In its latest study on the light military rotorcraft market, Forecast International projects that 1,304 light military rotorcraft will be produced from 2015 through 2024.  The value of this production is estimated at $19.9 billion in constant 2015 U.S. dollars.  In general, we define a light military rotorcraft as having a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

UTC Moves Ahead With Sikorsky Divestiture

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Sikorksy Combat Rescue Helicopter

Sikorsky Combat Rescue Helicopter

 

On the opening day of the Paris Air Show, United Technologies Corp (UTC) revealed that it has decided to proceed with a sale or spinoff of its Stratford, Connecticut-based Sikorsky Aircraft subsidiary.  Earlier this year, UTC had announced that it was reviewing strategic alternatives regarding Sikorsky’s future within the UTC corporate portfolio.

At the time, Forecast International wrote that Sikorsky had a bright future with or without UTC.  We pointed to such factors as Sikorsky’s continuing leadership in the military rotorcraft market among Western manufacturers, underscored by robust U.S. Army procurement of Black Hawk helicopters as well as key wins in such contests as the U.S. Air Force combat rescue helicopter and U.S. Navy VXX presidential helicopter programs.  Added to this are Sikorsky’s smaller but growing presence in the civil rotorcraft market and the bright outlook for the firm in the increasingly important helicopter aftermarket.
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Airbus Helicopters Unveils H160; Rebrands Product Line

by Raymond Jaworowski, Forecast International.

Airbus Helicopters unveiled the new H160 civil medium twin helicopter in early March at the Heli-Expo show in Orlando, Florida.  Previously known as the X4, the H160 is intended to replace the Dauphin series in the company’s product line.

Airbus Helicopters H160

Airbus Helicopters H160

The H160 will be powered by a pair of 1,100-shp Turbomeca Arrano engines.  Maximum takeoff weight will be in the 5.5-6.0-metric-ton range.  Other features of the new helicopter will include a composite airframe, Blue Edge composite rotor blades, the Helionix avionics suite, electrically actuated landing gear, a biplane stabilizer, and a canted Fenestron.

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