Dassault Quickly Replaces Falcon 5X with Larger, Longer-Range Falcon 6X

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Dassault Falcon 6X. Source: Dassault Aviation

Dassault moved quickly to replace its canceled Falcon 5X business jet with the new Falcon 6X, a larger and longer-range aircraft targeted at roughly the same portion of the market that the 5X had been.  In December 2017, Dassault canceled development of the 5X, and began the process of terminating its contract with Safran for the supply of Silvercrest engines to power the aircraft.  At the same time, still seeing a market need for a new aircraft in this niche, Dassault announced a new, then-unnamed Falcon business jet.  In February 2018, this new aircraft received the name Falcon 6X. Continue reading

Business Jet Market Recovery On the Horizon

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Gulfstream G650

Gulfstream G650

Data from Forecast International’s innovative Platinum Forecast System® 3.1 show that a total of 12,282 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  We estimate the value of this production at $354 billion in 2017 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

Light Military Rotorcraft Market to Stabilize Over Long Term

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Bell UH-1Y

Utilizing data from its innovative Platinum Forecast System® 3.1, Forecast International projects that a total of 1,610 light military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  The value of this production is estimated at $22.2 billion in constant 2017 U.S. dollars.  In general, we define a military rotorcraft as light when it has a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

LEAP Ready to Jump Ahead of CFM56

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

LEAP-1B Engine. Source: CFM International

The completion of the biennial Paris Air Show marks a time when orders are tallied and success is measured. The battle for orders between Airbus and Boeing is not new; however, with each airframe sold, suppliers also reap the rewards, particularly engine manufacturers. Continue reading

Forecast International Predicts $4.15 Trillion Large Jetliner Market Over 15 Years

by Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Boeing and China Aircraft Leasing Group (CALC) announced an order for 50 737 MAX airplanes at the 2017 Paris Air Show. Source: Boeing

According to projections from Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System® 3.1, a total of 26,210 large commercial jetliners will be produced in the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  The value of this production is estimated at $4.15 trillion in constant 2017 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

E175-E2 Service Entry Postponed to 2021

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Embraer E175-E2 regional jet

Embraer E175-E2 regional jet

Embraer has postponed service entry of its new E175-E2 regional jet by approximately one year.  Originally targeted for 2020, the E175-E2 is now scheduled to enter service in 2021.  The company said that, in part, the postponement is due to the inability of major airlines in the U.S. to negotiate a relaxation of scope clauses in pilot contracts. Continue reading

Business Jet Market to Resume Positive Growth Trend

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Cessna Longitude.

Cessna Longitude.

Although business jet production is unlikely to match the skyrocketing output seen in the mid-2000s any time soon, Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System® shows that a total of 13,252 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2016 through 2030.  The value of this production is estimated at a staggering $360 billion in FY16 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

Short-Term Growth, Longer-Term Decline Projected for Light Military Rotorcraft Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

H145M in flight (© Copyright Airbus Helicopters, Charles Abarr)

Airbus Helicopters H145M in flight (© Copyright Airbus Helicopters, Charles Abarr)

Forecast International is projecting that 1,241 light military rotorcraft will be produced by manufacturers during the 10-year period from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production is estimated at $19.7 billion, as calculated in constant 2016 U.S. dollars.  We define a light military rotorcraft as one having a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

Asia Increasingly Important for Light Military Rotorcraft Manufacturers

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Light Military Rotorcraft 2015-2024 Forecast. Source: Forecast International Platinum 2.0

Light Military Rotorcraft 2015-2024 Forecast. Source: Forecast International Platinum 2.0

In its latest study on the light military rotorcraft market, Forecast International projects that 1,304 light military rotorcraft will be produced from 2015 through 2024.  The value of this production is estimated at $19.9 billion in constant 2015 U.S. dollars.  In general, we define a light military rotorcraft as having a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

Paris Air Show Promises to be Biggest Ever, and Heralds a Return of the U.S. Military

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

bi_d_m-300x215The Paris Air Show is the world’s largest aerospace trade show, and organizers say that the 2015 event will host 2,260 exhibitors from 47 countries, surpassing the record 2,215 exhibitors hosted in 2013.

One of the highlights of the 2015 exhibition will be the return of the U.S. military, which skipped the 2013 Paris show due to sequestration-related budgetary issues.  A large static display of several U.S. military aircraft and rotorcraft is planned for the 2015 show, including a possible last hurrah at Paris for the A-10 close air support aircraft, which the U.S. Air Force has been trying to retire against the wishes of Congress.  One notable absence will be the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which is not scheduled to make the trip to Paris.  None of the U.S. military aircraft are slated to perform in the show’s daily flying display. Continue reading