EU Taking Steps to Bring Harmony to Its Discordant Defense Market

by Dan Darling, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

After years of talk with little to show for it, the governments of Europe are finally moving forward with long-held cooperative defense ambitions through the auspices of the European Union. The announcement by the EU on June 7 of a European Defense Industrial Program co-financed by members to the tune of EUR500-EUR590 million annually through 2020, thereafter growing to EUR1-EUR1.5 billion annually, marks the launch of an effort to bring commonality and unity to an otherwise fragmented market. Continue reading

Higher Defense Budgets Likely to Give Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market a Lift

by Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

V-280 Concept for Future Vertical Lift (FVL). Source: Bell Helicopter

Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System 3.1 indicates that a total of 6,175  medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  The value of this production is estimated at $158.4 billion (in FY17 dollars).  We define a medium/heavy military rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

In a Sensible Move, Argentina’s Defense Minister Decides Not to Purchase Supersonic Jets

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Argentina IA-58 Pucara. Source: Wikipedia/Rob Schleiffert

Argentine Minister of Defense Julio Martinez has ruled out the purchase of supersonic fighter jets for the Argentine Air Force. The defense minister made his announcement on February 1 during an interview with Argentina’s Radio El Mundo.

Argentina has been searching for new supersonic fighter jets since it retired its Mirage IIIs in November 2015. The search has been wide-ranging, with Buenos Aires searching the world for both new and secondhand fighters. Continue reading

Crime and Internal Strife Remain Greatest Drivers of Military Spending in Latin America

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Georgia Army National Guard provides CQB/MOUT [close quarters combat and military operations on urbanized terrain] weapons handling instruction with two soldiers from the Guatemalan Interagency Task Force.  Photo: Georgia National Guard

The greatest threat to most Latin American governments is internal.  Even though transitioning to a democracy and using effective counterinsurgency strategies have successfully defeated – or at least defused  – several insurgencies, the risk of guerrilla activity remains.  This is especially true in Colombia and, to a lesser extent, Peru.  In Mexico and Central America, violent gangs have forced a military response. Continue reading

Brazil’s Budget Spending Limit Amendment to Cut into Defense Spending

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

brazil-flag-small

On December 13, Brazil’s Senate approved a constitutional amendment, effective December 15, 2016, that will cap growth of government spending. This law will have a direct effect on defense spending, limiting it for at least the next 10 years.  However, with Brazil’s large defense budget (number 10 in the world), the market in that country will continue to be strong. Continue reading

The Effect of 2016’s Presidential Election on Worldwide Aerospace and Defense Markets Part 2/2

By Matthew Beres, Forecast International.

election-2016

Welcome to the Forecast Roundtable Podcast. Forecast Roundtable brings together expert analysts, industry professionals, and government officials to discuss the latest issues in the aerospace and defense markets. Produced at the Forecast International headquarters, Forecast Roundtable offers unique and in depth insight and discussion on any range of topics from geopolitics to aerospace and defense markets. Topic suggestions are welcome.

This episode features Ray Jawarowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Dan Darling, Europe and Asia, Australia & Pacific Rim Analyst, Bill Ostrove, South America & Space Systems analyst, Derek Bisaccio, Middle East and Eurasia analyst, and Matthew Beres, Airborne Retrofit and Modernization analyst. Continue reading

With the U.S. Election in the Rear View, Is It Time to Worry in Eastern Europe?

by Dan Darling, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

US Flag

The U.S. election has been decided and, contrary to the overwhelming predictions by the establishment media and pollsters, Republican candidate Donald Trump will be the country’s next president.

The question for America’s European partners now becomes, what will happen to their relationship with the U.S. under a Trump administration?  Continue reading

The Effect of 2016’s Presidential Election on Worldwide Aerospace and Defense Markets Part 1/2

By Matthew Beres, Forecast International.

election-2016

Welcome to the Forecast Roundtable Podcast. Forecast Roundtable brings together expert analysts, industry professionals, and government officials to discuss the latest issues in the aerospace and defense markets. Produced at the Forecast International headquarters, Forecast Roundtable offers unique and in depth insight and discussion on any range of topics from geopolitics to aerospace and defense markets. Topic suggestions are welcome. Continue reading

Russia Contemplates Large Defense Budget Cut

by Derek Bisaccio, Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Russian Troops Conducting Joint Drills with the Egyptian Military  during the "Defenders of Friendship 2016" Exercises  Source: Russian Ministry of Defense: http://mil.ru/

Russian Troops Conducting Joint Drills with the Egyptian Military
during the “Defenders of Friendship 2016” Exercises
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense: http://mil.ru/

Citing a draft budget document released by business daily Kommersant, a number of Russian news outlets have reported that Russia is considering cutting close to a third of its defense expenditures for 2017.

Though not final, the document suggests that Russia might reduce defense expenditures by nearly 30 percent. It is likely that the Defense Ministry will fiercely oppose the moves; a Reuters report in February of this year cited a source as saying there was “mighty opposition” from the Defense Ministry to potential procurement cuts.[i] Continue reading

Brazilian Economic Crisis Limits Defense Spending

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Embraer KC-390

The Embraer KC-390 is being acquired by Brazil.

While Brazil is a country largely at peace, it also maintains the largest defense budget in Latin America. Externally, Brazil’s military is responsible for defending the country’s territory. This became more important after Brazil discovered oil reserves off its coast, prompting investment in air and sea assets. Although Latin American countries are relatively free from conflict, the Brazilian military is still seen as a deterrent to other nations in the region. For example, many of Brazil’s current acquisition programs have been a response to Venezuelan purchases. Continue reading