Historic Summit Has Major Implications for U.S. Military

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

Source: AP Photo/Evan Vucci

The historic meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim
Jong-un in Singapore resulted in the signing of a joint statement that carries significant implications for relations between the two countries, and for U.S. military relations in the region.  The statement is big on ambition but short on details.  Most significantly, Kim “reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” the statement reads.  The two leaders also committed to establishing new diplomatic relations, while Trump committed to providing security guarantees to North Korea.        Continue reading

Turkmenistan’s President Snubs Central Asian Summit

by Derek Bisaccio, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov at the 2014 Caspian Summit. Photo from Russian Presidency website.

On March 15, 2018, four Central Asian leaders met at an important summit in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, to discuss regional issues ranging from economic to environmental to security concerns. The summit featured the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and marked a significant moment for the region, as Uzbekistan, after years of strained relations, has worked under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to improve his country’s ties with the other Central Asian states. Continue reading

Russian President Signs New State Armaments Program

by Derek Bisaccio, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) meets with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (R) in 2015.  Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

The document detailing the new Russian State Armaments Program (SAP), covering the years 2018 to 2027, has been signed, according to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin, who spoke to Kommersant in an interview in late February. In this timeframe, Russia will spend over $300 billion on the procurement of new military hardware as part of an effort to equip its forces with modern systems. Continue reading

Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market Stabilizing

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Boeing and Sikorsky’s Future Vertical Lift (FVL) concept. Source: Boeing

Data from Forecast International’s unique Platinum Forecast System underscores the importance of the medium/heavy military rotorcraft segment to the world’s rotorcraft manufacturers.  Over the next 15 years, from 2018 to 2032, the medium/heavy military sector will be the largest segment of the world rotorcraft market in terms of monetary value, and second only to the light civil rotorcraft segment in terms of unit production. Continue reading

In Controversial Move, Mexican Senate Approves Military Operations Against Criminals

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Mexico Army paratroopers

In a 71 to 34 vote, the Mexican Senate approved the Internal Security Law, which gives the Mexican armed forces a legal framework to conduct internal security operations. Proponents of the law say it will give the military the ability to support police in combating criminal networks that have hurt Mexico, while opponents believe it will lead to increased human rights abuses. Continue reading

EU Taking Steps to Bring Harmony to Its Discordant Defense Market

by Dan Darling, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

After years of talk with little to show for it, the governments of Europe are finally moving forward with long-held cooperative defense ambitions through the auspices of the European Union. The announcement by the EU on June 7 of a European Defense Industrial Program co-financed by members to the tune of EUR500-EUR590 million annually through 2020, thereafter growing to EUR1-EUR1.5 billion annually, marks the launch of an effort to bring commonality and unity to an otherwise fragmented market. Continue reading

Higher Defense Budgets Likely to Give Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market a Lift

by Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

V-280 Concept for Future Vertical Lift (FVL). Source: Bell Helicopter

Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System 3.1 indicates that a total of 6,175  medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  The value of this production is estimated at $158.4 billion (in FY17 dollars).  We define a medium/heavy military rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

In a Sensible Move, Argentina’s Defense Minister Decides Not to Purchase Supersonic Jets

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Argentina IA-58 Pucara. Source: Wikipedia/Rob Schleiffert

Argentine Minister of Defense Julio Martinez has ruled out the purchase of supersonic fighter jets for the Argentine Air Force. The defense minister made his announcement on February 1 during an interview with Argentina’s Radio El Mundo.

Argentina has been searching for new supersonic fighter jets since it retired its Mirage IIIs in November 2015. The search has been wide-ranging, with Buenos Aires searching the world for both new and secondhand fighters. Continue reading

Crime and Internal Strife Remain Greatest Drivers of Military Spending in Latin America

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Georgia Army National Guard provides CQB/MOUT [close quarters combat and military operations on urbanized terrain] weapons handling instruction with two soldiers from the Guatemalan Interagency Task Force.  Photo: Georgia National Guard

The greatest threat to most Latin American governments is internal.  Even though transitioning to a democracy and using effective counterinsurgency strategies have successfully defeated – or at least defused  – several insurgencies, the risk of guerrilla activity remains.  This is especially true in Colombia and, to a lesser extent, Peru.  In Mexico and Central America, violent gangs have forced a military response. Continue reading

Brazil’s Budget Spending Limit Amendment to Cut into Defense Spending

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

brazil-flag-small

On December 13, Brazil’s Senate approved a constitutional amendment, effective December 15, 2016, that will cap growth of government spending. This law will have a direct effect on defense spending, limiting it for at least the next 10 years.  However, with Brazil’s large defense budget (number 10 in the world), the market in that country will continue to be strong. Continue reading