World General Aviation Aircraft Deliveries Increase as Revenues Slump at Gulfstream and Bombardier

U.S. manufacturers delivered 363 aircraft in Q2 2017 – up 8 units, or 2.3%, from Q2 2016

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

The Cirrus SR22T (piston) was the best-selling general aviation aircraft worldwide in Q2 2017, with 50 units delivered – up from 47 in Q2 2016.
Photo Courtesy of Cirrus Aircraft

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), the second quarter of 2017 showed mixed results for the industry, but with several bright spots. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 561 aircraft worldwide in Q2 2017, up 2.6 percent from 547 in Q2 2016. At the same time, however, revenues declined 1.2 percent, to $5.3 billion, driven by lower revenues at Gulfstream and Bombardier. Continue reading

World General Aviation Aircraft Market off to a Mixed Start as Revenues Slump

U.S. Manufacturers Delivered 311 Aircraft in Q1 2017 – up 32 from 2016

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

The Cirrus SR22 (piston) was the best-selling general aviation aircraft worldwide in Q1 2017 with 25 units delivered – up from 20 in Q1 2016. Photo Courtesy: Cirrus Aircraft.

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), the first quarter of 2017 showed mixed results for the industry – with several bright spots appearing. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 434 aircraft worldwide, up 2.8 percent  from 422 in the Q1 2016. However,  revenues declined as much as 10.9 percent  (to $3.6 billion), due to increased competition and lower prices. Continue reading

Business Jet Market to Resume Positive Growth Trend

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Cessna Longitude.

Cessna Longitude.

Although business jet production is unlikely to match the skyrocketing output seen in the mid-2000s any time soon, Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System® shows that a total of 13,252 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2016 through 2030.  The value of this production is estimated at a staggering $360 billion in FY16 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

Business Jet Prospects Brighten as U.S. Customers Return to the Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Cessna Mustang

Cessna Mustang

Forecast International’s latest analysis of the worldwide business jet market indicates that a total of 9,237 business jets will be produced in the 10-year period from 2015 through 2024.  We estimate the value of this production at $248 billion in constant 2015 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

G500 Makes First Flight

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Gulfstream G500

Gulfstream G500 (Source: Gulfstream Aerospace)

Gulfstream’s G500 business jet completed its first flight on May 18.  Unveiled in October 2014, the G500 is part of Gulfstream’s new family of clean-sheet, long-range business jets, which also includes the G600.

The G500 (N500GA) took off at 10:39 am local time from Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport in Georgia.  The aircraft climbed to an initial altitude of 3,200 meters (10,500 ft), and reached a maximum altitude of 4,572 meters (15,000 ft).  It achieved a maximum air speed of 194 knots.

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Bizjet Recovery Slow But Steady

By Raymond Jaworowski, Forecast International

The business jet market is currently in the early stages of recovery. This recovery got underway in 2013, when annual business jet production registered a slight increase after having declined for four consecutive years from 2009 through 2012.

The recovery appears poised to strengthen in the next few years. Most market indicators are positive. Economic growth is continuing, however sluggishly. Corporate profits are strong. Orders for new business jets are rising, and order backlogs at manufacturers have stabilized. The inventory of used aircraft for sale is declining. Flight activity is increasing.

Cessna Mustang

Cessna Mustang

To some extent, though, the business jet sector continues to be a tale of two markets. Demand is quite strong in the upper tiers of the sector, from the super mid-size class up through the long-range segment. In the medium jet class, the picture is a bit mixed but is nevertheless improving. However, in the lighter categories, demand is still somewhat weak.

The market for lighter jets is largely concentrated in North America, the biggest geographic market for business jets but a heavily saturated market as well. While economic improvement in the U.S. has been slow, corporate profits have been robust, allowing businesses to accumulate large reserves of cash. Uncertainty over economic and political conditions, though, has made many of these businesses hesitant to make large capital acquisitions such as aircraft purchases.

The key to unlocking this latent demand in the North American market is continued economic improvement. This should serve to strengthen business confidence and unlock corporate coffers. Greater transparency concerning government intentions regarding taxation and regulations would further boost business confidence.

 

Gulfstream G650

Gulfstream G650

The business jet market is strong in most other regions of the world, with Europe being a significant exception. But even in Europe, the outlook is improving, as the worst of the region’s recent sovereign debt crisis appears to be over.

Meanwhile, as they have traditionally done, business jet manufacturers used the recent market downturn (and the immediate aftermath) to launch several new models. Each of the Big Five established players has at least one new model in design and development.

The recovery in the business jet market is likely to be gradual and measured in its pace: a solid, if unspectacular, recovery. We do not expect the 2008 production level of 1,314 business jets to be reached in any year of the 2014-2023 forecast period.

Dassault Falcon 8X

Dassault Falcon 8X

Forecast International projects that a total of 9,634 business jets will be produced in the 20-year period from 2014 through 2023. The value of this production is estimated at $255 billion in constant 2014 U.S. dollars.

Production is forecast to total 719 units in 2014, and to steadily increase to 1,136 units by 2020. A two-year cyclical downturn in production is anticipated for the 2021-2022 timeframe, before build rates rebound in 2023.

During the forecast period, the top three manufacturers in unit production are projected to be Cessna, Bombardier, and Embraer. Cessna is forecast to produce 2,363 business jets, representing 24.5 percent of the market.

Bombardier Challenger 650

Bombardier Challenger 650

Bombardier is expected to build 2,075 business jets during the forecast period, for a market share of 21.5 percent. Embraer is third, with production of 1,732 aircraft and a share of 18 percent.

Fourth, fifth, and sixth places are taken by Gulfstream, Dassault, and Honda, respectively.

When the market is calculated in terms of monetary value, the manufacturers of the larger, high-value business jet types rise to the top of the rankings. In production value, Gulfstream takes the top spot with $74.7 billion worth of production, a share of 29.3 percent. In second place is Bombardier, with $69.7 billion worth of production and a 27.3 percent share. Dassault is third with a 17.4 percent market share on production worth $44.5 billion. Cessna, Embraer, and Boeing take the next three spots.