Not So Fast, Wall Street Analysts!

by Edward Nebinger, Forecast International.

LEAP-1B Engine. Source: CFM International

For the past month, Wall Street analysts have been having a feeding frenzy over General Electric, driving the price lower and lower until it reaches the point where they can jump back in.  It’s like a self-fulfilling prophesy – every day they find some new fault to gripe about, set lower target prices, announce them to the world, and, amazingly, the price goes down!  Actually, it’s wearing a little thin and the price seems to be sticking at around 18 bucks a share.  Continue reading

Who Will Power the T-X Trainer? Play the Percentages

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

Boeing/Saab T-X Trainer. Source – Boeing

The T-X competition is receiving a lot of attention in the aviation world. Such a lucrative contract—350 aircraft and further orders likely—promises a heated contest, with the triumphs and upsets a competition of this scale brings. The contending entrants are impressive and include both clean-sheet and current production models. While the designers – Boeing/Saab, Lockheed Martin/KAI, Leonardo, Sierra Nevada/TAI, and Stavatti – prepare for the impending battle, it’s worth a look at the engines that will power the aircraft. Continue reading

HondaJet’s Unique Engine Layout Sets It Apart from the Competition

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International

HondaJet in flight

HondaJet in flight

Automotive manufacturers have a long history of dabbling in aviation, and vice versa. The Ford Trimotor quickly jumps to mind; however, it is a new business jet entry to the market that is making headlines. The HondaJet, a unique design in the aviation world, has recently entered production. The aircraft and the engines that power it are forecast to do well in the light business jet market.

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GE Leads Marine Gas Turbine Market, But Rivals Challenge Position

by Stuart Slade, I&M Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

General Electric LM 2500

General Electric LM 2500

The startling thing about the marine gas turbine market is that only three companies maintain a significant market presence. Since gas turbines came to dominate the warship propulsion sector in the 1980s, the major players have absorbed the minor ones, resulting in the present level of market centralization.

The key players in the marine gas turbine market are GE, Rolls-Royce, and Zorya-Mashproekt. GE is the undoubted leader with nearly half the market. It owes this position to its virtual monopoly of the U.S. Navy market during the 1980s and 1990s.  Until very recently, every U.S. Navy surface combatant was powered by GE LM2500 gas turbines.  This monopoly position is now being challenged by Rolls-Royce, currently the second supplier in terms of market share but whose MT30 Marine Trent gas turbine is winning growing acceptance. The MT30 was selected for the DDG-1000 missile destroyer and the LCS-1 Littoral Combat Ship, and there are rumors that future groups of the DDG-51 destroyer might use the MT30 as well. Meanwhile, the follow-on to the LCAC, the Ship-to-Shore Connector, will use Rolls-Royce MT7 gas turbines.  The battle between GE and Rolls-Royce will be profoundly important to the entire naval shipbuilding industry.

The third participant, Zorya-Mashproekt, offers a range of gas turbines derived from those used to power Soviet warships during the Cold War.  The political problems in Ukraine mean that most Zorya sales are currently achieved by way of licensed producers in China and India.  Once these problems are resolved, Zorya is likely to regain its full market impact.

This market assessment of the marine gas turbine sector is based on the Forecast International Industrial and Marine Gas Turbine Database, a comprehensive listing of more than 41,150 gas turbine installations, of which 3,916 (9.51 percent) are marine gas turbines used for propulsion and 933 (2.27 percent) are gas turbines used for onboard power generation. The Industrial and Marine Gas Turbine Database is a unique reference source that contains details of every propulsion gas turbine that has ever been installed in a warship.

For the full report, click here.

Please feel free to use this content with Forecast International and analyst attributions, along with a link to the article. Contact Ray Peterson at +1 (203) 426-0800 or via email at ray.peterson@forecast1.com for additional analysis.


With over 70 engine program reports – from 1,200 kW to over 300 MW, Forecast International’s Industrial & Marine Turbine Forecast provides the tools required to make informed strategic decisions in an expanding marketplace. This service features five Market Segment Analyses covering Microturbines, Mechanical Drive Engines, Electrical Power Generation, Marine Power, and Steam Turbines for Combined-Cycle Installation. Included among the eight appendices are a breakout of consolidated production statistics and a directory of Industrial & Marine manufacturers and packagers.

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GE F404/414 Engine Will Prosper in Super Hornet’s Absence

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

F-18

The F-18 powered by GE F404/414 engines.

As production of the Boeing F-18E/F Super Hornet winds down in the coming years, one would assume production of its F404/414 engine would fall off as well; however, this is not the case, as Saab has recently reminded us. The future will indeed be bright, as the new Gripen E derives its impressive performance from the latest GE powerplants.  The GE F404/414 engine equips not only the Gripen but other international aircraft as well, including the KAI T-50 and HAL Tejas LCA. Although it has been used primarily on the U.S. Navy’s F-18, it is these other aircraft that will keep the production lines running. Indeed, Forecast International expects some 450 GE F404/414 engines worth about $2.2 billion to be produced over the next 10 years. Continue reading