Forecast International Launches Improved U.S. Defense Budget Database

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

Source: Forecast International’s U.S. Defense Budget Forecast

Forecast International is pleased to announce the launch of a newly enhanced U.S. Defense Budget Forecast database, now featuring the ability to track major program spending and identify winners and losers within every Pentagon budget request.  FI’s budget database provides quick access to DoD request and forecast budget data, justification documents, congressional markups, and more.  The Pentagon’s massive weapons spending plan can be sorted by value, with options for filtering programs by appropriation title (R1/P1), service, and appropriation account.       Continue reading

Acquisition Programs Dominate Pentagon’s FY17 Spending Increase

 by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

The defense bill added a dozen Super Hornets for the U.S. Navy.
Source: U.S. Navy

The Pentagon’s FY17 budget was signed into law on May 5, more than halfway through the fiscal year.  The legislation couldn’t come soon enough, as the military has been operating under a series of three continuing resolutions that funded the department at FY16 levels.  CRs bring with them a host of difficulties, including restrictions on launching new programs, and leave many existing programs overfunded or unfunded.  The Pentagon has become quite adept at navigating CRs, which have sadly become the norm in Washington.  However, this year’s scenario was particularly troubling, as CRs in recent years haven’t lasted more than a few months. Continue reading

Reaction to White House Budget Plan Highlights a Divided Congress

 by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

The White House
Source: Teddy Yoshida/National Science Foundation

The White House has issued initial budget guidance to federal agencies for the 2018 fiscal year, calling for an increase in defense spending that will be offset by an equal reduction for non-defense discretionary programs.  The plan calls for $603 billion in defense spending in FY18, reflecting an increase of $54 billion, or nearly 10 percent, over the current $549 billion Budget Control Act (BCA) cap.  The topline figure applies to budget function 050, which covers the Department of Defense, defense programs within the Department of Energy, and defense-related programs in other agencies.  The Pentagon’s base budget accounts for 95 to 96 percent of function 050 spending each year, with the exact amount varying with each budget. Continue reading

Mattis Budget Guidance Spans Multiple Budget Cycles, Calls for FY17 Growth

 by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

The Pentagon. Source: Department of Defense

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis released a memo on January 31 providing initial guidance for strengthening the armed forces through an FY17 budget amendment, the FY18 budget request, and the FY19-FY23 Future Years Defense Program.  The memo is a direct response to a memorandum on rebuilding the U.S. armed forces, released by the president on January 27.  Mattis outlines a three-phase approach: improve warfighter readiness; achieve program balance by addressing pressing shortfalls; and build a larger, more capable, and more lethal joint force.  Those objectives are centered around the completion of the FY17 budget process, and the release of the next two budget requests.

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U.S. Army Lays Out $26.5 Billion Worth of Unfunded Priorities

 by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

Strykers on the way to the Raptor Fury training exercise
Source: U.S. Army

The U.S. Army has released a pair of unfunded priorities lists for FY17 and FY18 calling for $26.5 billion in additional spending.  The documents serve as wish lists for items not contained within existing budget plans.  The FY17 portion is a revision of a list released in March 2016, and supports end-strength increases contained in the FY17 defense authorization bill.  Continue reading

U.S. Defense Authorization Bill Prioritizes Halting End Strength Reductions

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

Source: U.S. Army

Source: U.S. Army

The U.S. House and Senate have signed off on an FY17 defense policy bill that would halt ongoing end strength reductions, but the legislation does not include a House proposal to shift billions of dollars to bolster procurement programs.  The bill, which cleared the House on December 2 (375-34) and the Senate on December 8 (92-7), authorizes $543.4 billion in base spending for the Department of Defense and nuclear functions within the Department of Energy, plus $67.8 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations.  The latter includes $8.3 billion set aside for base budget requirements, comprising $5.1 billion requested by the administration and $3.2 billion added by lawmakers for additional troops.  The bill also includes funding to pay for a November 2016 supplemental budget request submitted by the White House that contained $5.8 billion for operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Europe.  The supplemental contained $529.9 million in additional acquisition funding. Continue reading

GE Leads Marine Gas Turbine Market, But Rivals Challenge Position

by Stuart Slade, I&M Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

General Electric LM 2500

General Electric LM 2500

The startling thing about the marine gas turbine market is that only three companies maintain a significant market presence. Since gas turbines came to dominate the warship propulsion sector in the 1980s, the major players have absorbed the minor ones, resulting in the present level of market centralization.

The key players in the marine gas turbine market are GE, Rolls-Royce, and Zorya-Mashproekt. GE is the undoubted leader with nearly half the market. It owes this position to its virtual monopoly of the U.S. Navy market during the 1980s and 1990s.  Until very recently, every U.S. Navy surface combatant was powered by GE LM2500 gas turbines.  This monopoly position is now being challenged by Rolls-Royce, currently the second supplier in terms of market share but whose MT30 Marine Trent gas turbine is winning growing acceptance. The MT30 was selected for the DDG-1000 missile destroyer and the LCS-1 Littoral Combat Ship, and there are rumors that future groups of the DDG-51 destroyer might use the MT30 as well. Meanwhile, the follow-on to the LCAC, the Ship-to-Shore Connector, will use Rolls-Royce MT7 gas turbines.  The battle between GE and Rolls-Royce will be profoundly important to the entire naval shipbuilding industry.

The third participant, Zorya-Mashproekt, offers a range of gas turbines derived from those used to power Soviet warships during the Cold War.  The political problems in Ukraine mean that most Zorya sales are currently achieved by way of licensed producers in China and India.  Once these problems are resolved, Zorya is likely to regain its full market impact.

This market assessment of the marine gas turbine sector is based on the Forecast International Industrial and Marine Gas Turbine Database, a comprehensive listing of more than 41,150 gas turbine installations, of which 3,916 (9.51 percent) are marine gas turbines used for propulsion and 933 (2.27 percent) are gas turbines used for onboard power generation. The Industrial and Marine Gas Turbine Database is a unique reference source that contains details of every propulsion gas turbine that has ever been installed in a warship.

For the full report, click here.

Please feel free to use this content with Forecast International and analyst attributions, along with a link to the article. Contact Ray Peterson at +1 (203) 426-0800 or via email at ray.peterson@forecast1.com for additional analysis.


With over 70 engine program reports – from 1,200 kW to over 300 MW, Forecast International’s Industrial & Marine Turbine Forecast provides the tools required to make informed strategic decisions in an expanding marketplace. This service features five Market Segment Analyses covering Microturbines, Mechanical Drive Engines, Electrical Power Generation, Marine Power, and Steam Turbines for Combined-Cycle Installation. Included among the eight appendices are a breakout of consolidated production statistics and a directory of Industrial & Marine manufacturers and packagers.

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Deciphering Congressional Budget Markups with Forecast International’s Online Budget Tool

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.US Flag

The United States has what is probably the most transparent defense budget process in the world.  The Pentagon releases an annual budget request that provides detailed information on virtually every line item in the budget.  House and Senate defense committees then release markups of the budget, comprising hundreds of pages of mandates, recommendations, and opinions and providing insight into the often fickle minds of lawmakers.  Congressional budget markups also contain the all-important funding tables that dictate the various winners and losers throughout the budget process.  Continue reading