Dassault Quickly Replaces Falcon 5X with Larger, Longer-Range Falcon 6X

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Dassault Falcon 6X. Source: Dassault Aviation

Dassault moved quickly to replace its canceled Falcon 5X business jet with the new Falcon 6X, a larger and longer-range aircraft targeted at roughly the same portion of the market that the 5X had been.  In December 2017, Dassault canceled development of the 5X, and began the process of terminating its contract with Safran for the supply of Silvercrest engines to power the aircraft.  At the same time, still seeing a market need for a new aircraft in this niche, Dassault announced a new, then-unnamed Falcon business jet.  In February 2018, this new aircraft received the name Falcon 6X. Continue reading

Business Jet Market Recovery On the Horizon

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Gulfstream G650

Gulfstream G650

Data from Forecast International’s innovative Platinum Forecast System® 3.1 show that a total of 12,282 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  We estimate the value of this production at $354 billion in 2017 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

World General Aviation Aircraft Market off to a Mixed Start as Revenues Slump

U.S. Manufacturers Delivered 311 Aircraft in Q1 2017 – up 32 from 2016

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

The Cirrus SR22 (piston) was the best-selling general aviation aircraft worldwide in Q1 2017 with 25 units delivered – up from 20 in Q1 2016. Photo Courtesy: Cirrus Aircraft.

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), the first quarter of 2017 showed mixed results for the industry – with several bright spots appearing. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 434 aircraft worldwide, up 2.8 percent  from 422 in the Q1 2016. However,  revenues declined as much as 10.9 percent  (to $3.6 billion), due to increased competition and lower prices. Continue reading

Business Jet Market to Resume Positive Growth Trend

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Cessna Longitude.

Cessna Longitude.

Although business jet production is unlikely to match the skyrocketing output seen in the mid-2000s any time soon, Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System® shows that a total of 13,252 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2016 through 2030.  The value of this production is estimated at a staggering $360 billion in FY16 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

India Finally – Finally – Inks Rafale Deal

by Dan Darling, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Dassault Rafale

Dassault Rafale

More than nine years after India initially sought out a Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) under its $11 billion “Deal of the Century” competition, over four years since the Rafale was downselected as the winning bid, and nearly a year-and-a-half since Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut through the byzantine MMRCA technical parameters in an attempt to speed things up by reaching an inter-government agreement with French President Francois Hollande, India finally signed a deal with France for the procurement of Dassault Rafale combat aircraft on September 23. Continue reading

Forecast Roundtable, #3

Featuring Forecast International analysts Doug Royce, Derek Bisaccio and Daniel Darling. Edited by Matthew Beres.

2podcast logoWelcome to the third episode of the Forecast Roundtable podcast. Each podcast features several analysts discussing various aerospace and defense-related issues.

This week Doug Royce continues the interviews of Derek Bisaccio and Daniel Darling regarding Middle East defense cooperation and military acquisition. Matthew Beres edited.

Click the button below to download the podcast.

PodcastButton100:50 – What’s happening with defense budgets in the region now that oil prices are going down?

02:25 – How does Israel feel about the defense buildup that’s happening in the GCC?

04:27 – F-35 comments

04:32 – Israel and Turkey’s Relationship

10:22 – Defense trade between the Arab world and China. Will China be a future competitor for the U.S. and European companies?

12:05 – Will the future see greater reliance on China as an arms supplier to GCC countries?



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Forecast Roundtable, Podcast Episode 2

By Matthew Beres and Bill Ostrove, Forecast International.

2podcast logo

Welcome to Forecast International’s second episode of the Forecast Roundtable podcast. Each podcast features several analysts discussing various aerospace and defense-related issues. Continue reading

Is the Rafale Coming to the Indian Navy?

by Dan Darling, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Dassault Rafale (Source: Rafale International)

Dassault Rafale (Source: Rafale International)

As India embarks on its quest to fast-track construction of a second indigenous aircraft carrier, the question in Indian Navy circles becomes how best to fill out the necessary combat aircraft component to be featured on the new ship. At a projected 65,000 tons, the future INS Vishal will be much larger than its 40,000-ton predecessor, INS Vikrant, and, per Indian Navy planners’ projections, will require that the service procure as many as 54 additional aircraft. Continue reading

Triumph! For Now. Rafale’s Struggles, Failures, Big Wins… and Future

By Matthew Beres, Forecast International.

Dassault Rafale (Source: Rafale International)

Dassault Rafale (Source: Rafale International)

In the blink of an eye, France has come out of nowhere and ripped the global fighter market from the hands of its industry competitors. It’s certainly no surprise that the Rafale is gaining sales momentum, as it’s always been operationally competitive, despite a protracted failure to solicit international buyers. Continue reading

G500 Makes First Flight

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Gulfstream G500

Gulfstream G500 (Source: Gulfstream Aerospace)

Gulfstream’s G500 business jet completed its first flight on May 18.  Unveiled in October 2014, the G500 is part of Gulfstream’s new family of clean-sheet, long-range business jets, which also includes the G600.

The G500 (N500GA) took off at 10:39 am local time from Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport in Georgia.  The aircraft climbed to an initial altitude of 3,200 meters (10,500 ft), and reached a maximum altitude of 4,572 meters (15,000 ft).  It achieved a maximum air speed of 194 knots.

Continue reading