World General Aviation Aircraft Shipments Up 7% in Third Quarter 2018

U.S. Manufacturers Deliver 416 Aircraft in Third Quarter – Up 39 Units from Q3 2017

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent, Forecast International.

Swiss general aviation aircraft manufacturer Pilatus Aircraft had a stellar third quarter, with billings up 44 percent thanks to a record six deliveries of its new PC-24 business jet. Photo Courtesy: Pilatus Aircraft Ltd.

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), in the third quarter of 2018, compared to the same period last year, manufacturers reported higher deliveries but nearly flat revenues. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 568 aircraft worldwide in Q3 2018, up 7.2 percent from 530 in Q3 2017. Revenues (billings), however, only increased 0.8 percent to $4.1 billion due to lower revenues at Gulfstream, Bombardier and Textron. Continue reading

Airbus and Boeing Report October 2018 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Deliveries

Airbus Reports Strong Orders and Deliveries in Difficult Month for Boeing

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent, Forecast International.

In what was a very strong month for Airbus with 81 deliveries and 84 net new orders, the company booked two key A330neo orders for a total of 18 aircraft. Also, on November 6, 2018, Airbus staged the maiden flight of the A330-800 [photo]. Source: Airbus SAS

Boeing and Airbus delivered 57 and 81 commercial jets in October 2018, respectively, compared to 56 and 63 deliveries during the same month last year. Airbus’ performance in October, in what is traditionally an average month for deliveries, was impressive. Boeing has been dogged by late deliveries of engines, fuselages, and other parts and components for its flagship 737 narrowbody jet since July of this year. Despite a strong comeback in recent months, in early November Boeing warned of lower-than-expected October deliveries. The company expects shipments to rebound in November and December and reaffirmed its full-year delivery target. In 2017, Boeing delivered 763 jets (748 in 2016), in line with company expectations, while Airbus surpassed its delivery target of 700 jets by handing over 718 aircraft during 2017 (688 in 2016). Continue reading

Pentagon Budget Faces Increased Pressure After Elections

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

Rep. Adam Smith has balked at developing a low-yield nuclear warhead, which would be mounted on a Trident missile. Source: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Ronald Gutridge

The Democrats took control of the U.S. House of Representatives following Tuesday’s midterm elections, setting the stage for what could be a prolonged battle over defense spending and policy.  The Pentagon’s topline was already facing cuts recently announced by the Trump administration, but the change in power in the House will give Democrats momentum as they push for increased domestic spending.

Continue reading

An Overview of the U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

Recent U.S. DoT Data Reveals Fleet of 7,309 Aircraft Flying as of Year-End 2017

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent, Forecast International.

The Boeing 737-800 is the most commonly used aircraft by airlines in the United States. As of the end of 2017, American Airlines operated a fleet of 304 aircraft of this type, ahead of Southwest with 181 aircraft, United Airlines (141), Delta Air Lines (77), and Alaska Airlines (61).  Source: BriYYZ (flickr user).

Recently, the U.S. Department of Transportation released its annual Schedule B-43 Inventory database, which contains all commercial aircraft in the U.S. inventory as of year-end 2017. Some inaccuracies and inconsistencies in the raw data were identified and fixed by Forecast International by cross-checking with individual airline fleet data.

Continue reading

U.S. Navy Seeks Nearly $4 Billion for SEWIP, Set to Provide Key Components of the LCS

by Andrew Dardine, Electronic Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

SLQ-32(V) Shipboard EW System. Source: Raytheon

Under the massive Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program (SEWIP), the U.S. Navy is enhancing the capability of its SLQ-32 electronic warfare system to provide early detection, analysis, and warning of – and protection from – anti-ship missiles.  The multi-stage SEWIP provides a family of modular shipborne electronic warfare equipment for installation on all surface combatants, aircraft carriers, amphibious ships, and auxiliaries in the surface Navy.  Continue reading

Forecast Roundtable – The Khashoggi Murder and its Effects on Saudi-U.S.-Turkey Relations

 By Matthew Beres and Dan Darling, Forecast International.

Welcome to the Forecast Roundtable Podcast. Forecast Roundtable brings together expert analysts, industry professionals, and government officials to discuss the latest issues in the aerospace and defense markets. Produced at the Forecast International headquarters, Forecast Roundtable offers unique and in depth insight and discussion on any range of topics from geopolitics to aerospace and defense markets.

This episode features Daniel Darling, Jim Head, and Derek Bisaccio on the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and how his death impacts Saudi Arabia’s arms imports. Continue reading

Trump Opens the Door to Defense Spending Cuts as Sequestration Looms

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

An F-35 Flies Alongside an F-16. Source: U.S. Air Force

President Donald Trump has called on department secretaries to deliver 5 percent cuts for their upcoming FY20 budget requests, opening the door for a potential decline in defense spending.  At the same time, Trump said the defense budget would “probably” total $700 billion in FY20.  Initially, it was unclear if this $700 billion figure applied only to the Pentagon, or to the total national security budget, which also includes programs and agencies outside of the U.S. Department of Defense, such as nuclear programs within the Department of Energy.  Continue reading

Examining U.S. Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia

by Derek Bisaccio, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo departs from King Salman Air Base on October 17. He is accompanied by the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S., Prince Khalid bin Salman. Photo: Ron Przysucha / U.S. Department of State

The news of the disappearance and killing of The Washington Post writer Jamal Khashoggi has put a spotlight on the United States’ relationship with Saudi Arabia, especially the close security ties between the two countries. President Donald Trump remains reluctant to address arms sales in response to the crisis. He has contended that terminating those sales would hurt the U.S. economy.[i] Congress, however, is not buying the president’s argument and may seek to force his hand, if nothing else by seeking to delay or slow down the approval process for weapons.[ii] Continue reading

It’s a Mess Up There!

By Richard Sterk, Defense Electronics Analyst, Forecast International.

An Ever Increasing Number of Items Are Orbiting the Earth
Source: NASA

Until somewhat recently, space was a peaceful domain where orbital and flying craft were unprotected, but adversaries are now developing systems to counter advantages.  Traffic is building in space, as many new entrants have joined the ranks of spacefaring nations and counter‑space capabilities are becoming more of a concern. The United States must adapt its satellite constellations in response to such growing threats and elevate its game in space situational awareness. Continue reading

Airbus and Boeing Report September 2018 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Deliveries

Both Manufacturers Report Strong Deliveries; Boeing Still Well Ahead in Orders Race

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent, Forecast International.

On September 3, Airbus booked an order for 25 A321neos for VivaAerobus, a low-cost carrier based in Mexico. The order was originally announced in July and also converts 16 A320neos to A321neos. VivaAerobus operates an all-Airbus fleet and has a total of 60 A320neo family jets on order. Photo Courtesy: Airbus SAS

Boeing and Airbus delivered 87 and 69 commercial jets in September 2018, respectively, compared to 78 and 55 deliveries during the same month last year. September is traditionally a busy month for deliveries. Boeing has made a strong comeback after the company only delivered 39 aircraft in July as a result of 737 delays due to late deliveries of fuselages and engines from suppliers. Boeing has stated that it is making good progress toward fixing the logjam by year end and has also reaffirmed its full-year delivery target. In 2017, Boeing delivered 763 jets (748 in 2016), in line with company expectations, while Airbus surpassed its delivery target of 700 jets by handing over 718 aircraft during 2017 (688 in 2016). Continue reading