Embraer and Boeing Merger Would Round Out Aircraft Offerings

By Richard Pettibone and Ray Jaworowski, Analysts, Forecast International.

Embraer E190-E2

Boeing and Embraer have confirmed that the two companies are engaged in discussions regarding a potential combination, the basis of which remains under discussion.  While an outright acquisition is unlikely due to Brazilian government fears of outright foreign ownership, some form of joint venture is likely. Continue reading

Status Quo for World General Aviation Aircraft Deliveries in Q3 2017

U.S. Manufacturers Deliver 377 Aircraft – Down 6 Units from Q3 2016

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

Cessna delivered 29 units of its popular Grand Caravan EX turboprop in the third quarter of 2017, up from 22 in Q3 2016.  Photo: Textron Aviation

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), the third quarter of 2017 showed mixed results for the industry, but with some bright spots. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 531 aircraft worldwide in Q3 2017, down 1.1 percent from 537 in Q3 16. Revenues declined 0.9 percent to $4.1 billion, driven by lower revenues at Bombardier and Embraer. Continue reading

Business Jet Market Recovery On the Horizon

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Gulfstream G650

Gulfstream G650

Data from Forecast International’s innovative Platinum Forecast System® 3.1 show that a total of 12,282 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031.  We estimate the value of this production at $354 billion in 2017 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

U.S. Approves Canadian Super Hornet Deal that May Never Happen

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

A U.S. F-18 Refuels from a KC-10 Tanker
Source: U.S. Air Force

The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of 18 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and associated equipment to Canada as part of a potential deal worth $5.23 billion, according to a September 12 announcement from the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA).  The announcement outlines the potential sale of 10 F/A-18Es, eight F/A-18Fs, eight F414-GE-400 engine spares, APG-79 radars, 100 AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder Block II missiles, 30 AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder Block II Captive Air Training Missiles, and eight AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder Block II Special Air Training Missiles, as well as additional avionics and electronics.  Continue reading

U.S. Commerce Department Sides with Boeing on Bombardier Subsidy Fight

by Douglas Royce, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

CSeries 100 is at the center of the dispute. Photo: Bombardier

Earlier this week, the U.S. Commerce Department took Boeing’s side in an ongoing dispute with Canada’s Bombardier after Boeing claimed that an April 2016 order for 75 CSeries jets by Delta Air Lines was unfairly subsidized by the Canadian government.

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Long-Term Growth Projected for Regional Aircraft Market

by Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

ATR -600. Source: ATR.

Forecast International projects that a total of 5,728 regional aircraft will be produced in the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031, including both regional jets and regional turboprop airliners.  The value of this production is estimated at $212.9 billion, as calculated in constant 2017 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

World General Aviation Aircraft Deliveries Increase as Revenues Slump at Gulfstream and Bombardier

U.S. manufacturers delivered 363 aircraft in Q2 2017 – up 8 units, or 2.3%, from Q2 2016

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

The Cirrus SR22T (piston) was the best-selling general aviation aircraft worldwide in Q2 2017, with 50 units delivered – up from 47 in Q2 2016.
Photo Courtesy of Cirrus Aircraft

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), the second quarter of 2017 showed mixed results for the industry, but with several bright spots. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 561 aircraft worldwide in Q2 2017, up 2.6 percent from 547 in Q2 2016. At the same time, however, revenues declined 1.2 percent, to $5.3 billion, driven by lower revenues at Gulfstream and Bombardier. Continue reading

World General Aviation Aircraft Market off to a Mixed Start as Revenues Slump

U.S. Manufacturers Delivered 311 Aircraft in Q1 2017 – up 32 from 2016

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

The Cirrus SR22 (piston) was the best-selling general aviation aircraft worldwide in Q1 2017 with 25 units delivered – up from 20 in Q1 2016. Photo Courtesy: Cirrus Aircraft.

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), the first quarter of 2017 showed mixed results for the industry – with several bright spots appearing. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 434 aircraft worldwide, up 2.8 percent  from 422 in the Q1 2016. However,  revenues declined as much as 10.9 percent  (to $3.6 billion), due to increased competition and lower prices. Continue reading

Business Jet Market to Resume Positive Growth Trend

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Cessna Longitude.

Cessna Longitude.

Although business jet production is unlikely to match the skyrocketing output seen in the mid-2000s any time soon, Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System® shows that a total of 13,252 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2016 through 2030.  The value of this production is estimated at a staggering $360 billion in FY16 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

Regional Aircraft Market Stabilizing; Long-Term Growth Projected

by Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Mitsubishi Regional Jet

Mitsubishi Regional Jet

In our study “The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft,” Forecast International predicts that a total of 3,817 regional aircraft will be produced from 2016 through 2025.  This includes both regional jets and regional turboprop airliners.  The value of this production is estimated at $135.2 billion in constant 2016 U.S. dollars. Continue reading