A Wide-Angle View of the Airline MRO Market

by Matthew Beres, Airborne Retrofit & Modernization Analyst, Forecast International.

AAR Corp’s Airframe MRO facility in Indianapolis, IN.

It’s well known that the international MRO market is going to grow. The important question is, how is the market going to grow? Certainly whether you are an OEM or a traditional vendor – if you aren’t up to date with the latest technological momentum and industry trends, the ocean is going to look very red. Continue reading

Status Quo for World General Aviation Aircraft Deliveries in Q3 2017

U.S. Manufacturers Deliver 377 Aircraft – Down 6 Units from Q3 2016

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

Cessna delivered 29 units of its popular Grand Caravan EX turboprop in the third quarter of 2017, up from 22 in Q3 2016.  Photo: Textron Aviation

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), the third quarter of 2017 showed mixed results for the industry, but with some bright spots. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 531 aircraft worldwide in Q3 2017, down 1.1 percent from 537 in Q3 16. Revenues declined 0.9 percent to $4.1 billion, driven by lower revenues at Bombardier and Embraer. Continue reading

Not So Fast, Wall Street Analysts!

by Edward Nebinger, Forecast International.

LEAP-1B Engine. Source: CFM International

For the past month, Wall Street analysts have been having a feeding frenzy over General Electric, driving the price lower and lower until it reaches the point where they can jump back in.  It’s like a self-fulfilling prophesy – every day they find some new fault to gripe about, set lower target prices, announce them to the world, and, amazingly, the price goes down!  Actually, it’s wearing a little thin and the price seems to be sticking at around 18 bucks a share.  Continue reading

Dubai Airshow Recap – A Tale of Major Commitments and One Deal that Failed

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

Both Airbus and Boeing had a strong Dubai Airshow. On November 15, 2017, Indigo Partners and Airbus signed an MoU for 430 A320neo family aircraft. Although not a firm order, this constitutes an important vote of confidence in a platform that has been dogged by engine supply issues. Photo Courtesy Airbus SAS

Airbus and Boeing took the headlines at the 2017 Dubai Airshow with a slew of orders and commitments.  In the weeks leading up to the air show, the high point was expected to be a new Emirates order for 36 A380 superjumbos, but instead the newsflow out of Dubai was dominated by massive commitments for both manufacturers’ new families of narrowbody jets. As the doors closed on Thursday of last week, total orders amounted to nearly $114 billion at list prices. According to the organizers, trade visitors were up 20 percent over the 2015 event, and almost 80,000 people visited the show during its five-day run. For Airbus and Boeing, the final score in Dubai was 510 and 296 orders and commitments, respectively. Continue reading

Airbus, Boeing Report October 2017 Aircraft Orders and Deliveries

Boeing Set to Win 2017 Orders Race – A320neo Deliveries Finally Ramping Up

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

On October 20, 2017, China Southern Airlines placed an order for eight 777-300ER widebody jets and 30 737 MAXs. During President Trump’s visit to China in November, Boeing signed an agreement with CASC for 300 commercial jets.  Photo Courtesy China Southern Airlines

Boeing and Airbus delivered 56 and 63 commercial jets in October 2017, respectively, compared to 54 each during the same month last year. This year to date, Boeing has delivered 610 jets (617 at the same time last year), while Airbus has delivered 517 (516). In 2016, Boeing delivered 748 jets (762 in 2015), in line with company expectations, while Airbus surpassed its delivery target of 650 jets by handing over 688 jets during 2016 (635 in 2015). Continue reading

Can MAN Grab a Larger Share of the Gas Turbine Power Generation Market?

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems SpecialistForecast International.

MAN MGT6000 series

Can MAN, a company that is no stranger to power generation, outshine its rivals and break into a massive, competitive market? As far as gas turbines are concerned, MAN has not really had a big piece of the pie; however, that might shift somewhat in the coming decade. A new product, developed in-house by MAN, has been doing rather well for a new design and will perhaps gain the manufacturer some traction in the power generation/mechanical drive market.

Enter the MGT6000 Series

Continue reading

Airbus, Boeing Report Q3 2017 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Deliveries

Airbus Struggling with A320neo as PurePower Delays Persist

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

Airbus reportedly has many A320neo jets sitting on the tarmac at its final assembly locations waiting for their engines.  Photo:  Pratt & Whitney

Boeing and Airbus delivered 202 (78+66+58) and 148 (55+46+47) commercial jets in Q3 2017, respectively, compared to 188 and 164 during the same quarter last year. This year to date, Boeing has delivered 554 jets (563 at this time last year), while Airbus has delivered 454 (462 in 2016). In 2016, Boeing delivered 748 jets (762 in 2015) in line with company expectations, while Airbus surpassed its delivery target of 650 jets by handing over 688 jets during 2016 (635 in 2015). Continue reading

U.S. Commerce Department Sides with Boeing on Bombardier Subsidy Fight

by Douglas Royce, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

CSeries 100 is at the center of the dispute. Photo: Bombardier

Earlier this week, the U.S. Commerce Department took Boeing’s side in an ongoing dispute with Canada’s Bombardier after Boeing claimed that an April 2016 order for 75 CSeries jets by Delta Air Lines was unfairly subsidized by the Canadian government.

Continue reading

Northrop Grumman Acquisition of Orbital ATK Strengthens Diverse Space Offerings

by Bill Ostrove, Space Systems Analyst, and Richard Pettibone, Aerospace & Defense Companies Analyst, Forecast International.

Antares launch. Source: NASA/Bill Ingalls

Behind all the sound and fury surrounding the recent UTC/Rockwell deal, Northrop Grumman quietly moved in earlier this week and scooped up rocket and missile maker Orbital ATK in a deal valued at $9.2 billion.  Under the agreement Northrop Grumman will acquire Orbital ATK for approximately $7.8 billion in cash, plus the assumption of $1.4 billion in net debt. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2018 and is subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory and Orbital ATK shareholder approval. Continue reading

It’s Official, UTC Buying Rockwell Collins in $30 Billion Deal

by Richard Pettibone, Aerospace & Defense Companies Analyst, Forecast International.

 

After a summer of speculation, United Technologies Corp (UTC) and Rockwell Collins announced that they have reached a definitive agreement under which UTC will acquire Rockwell Collins in a cash and stock transaction valued at $30 billion. Continue reading