Military Satellite Average Launch Mass Continues to Decline

by Bill Ostrove, Space Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

ORS-1 Reconnaissance Satellite, United States Air Force Illustration.

Between 2012 and 2016, global militaries took delivery of 203 satellites. Deliveries reached a peak in 2013 with the launch of 55 satellites. Launches declined to a low point in 2016, when only 26 satellites were delivered into orbit. Going forward, Forecast International expects yearly satellite deliveries to continue between those two endpoints. Continue reading

A Positive Half-Measure: Taiwan’s Proposed 2018 Defense Budget

by Dan Darling, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Taiwan’s ruling cabinet announced on August 17 that it has approved a fiscal year 2018 budget proposal that favors the Ministry of National Defense over all other government departments.

The FY18 budget calls for an allocation of TWD331.8 billion ($10.95 billion) toward defense, which would make this area the largest of all government expenditures at 16.7 percent of the total national budget. Continue reading

World General Aviation Aircraft Deliveries Increase as Revenues Slump at Gulfstream and Bombardier

U.S. manufacturers delivered 363 aircraft in Q2 2017 – up 8 units, or 2.3%, from Q2 2016

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

The Cirrus SR22T (piston) was the best-selling general aviation aircraft worldwide in Q2 2017, with 50 units delivered – up from 47 in Q2 2016.
Photo Courtesy of Cirrus Aircraft

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), the second quarter of 2017 showed mixed results for the industry, but with several bright spots. Fixed-wing general aviation aircraft manufacturers delivered 561 aircraft worldwide in Q2 2017, up 2.6 percent from 547 in Q2 2016. At the same time, however, revenues declined 1.2 percent, to $5.3 billion, driven by lower revenues at Gulfstream and Bombardier. Continue reading

There Is Something Wrong With Our Ships Today – And There Is Something Wrong With Our System

by Stuart Slade, Senior Naval Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

Damage to the John S McCain. Courtesy Royal Malaysian Navy.

Ten sailors are missing and five were injured after DDG-56 USS John S. McCain was involved in a collision with the Alnic MC, a 600-foot oil tanker.  The collision took place off Singapore about 5.24 a.m. local time on August 21.  Five sailors were injured in the collision, and 10 are missing. The McCain suffered “significant damage to the hull” after a hole was torn in the warship beneath the waterline. It led to flooding of crew accommodation and a communications rooms and, most critically, caused flooding in a shaft tunnel.

Continue reading

With Latest Funding Agreement, Sweden Awakens from Its Defense Slumber

by Dan Darling, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Sweden’s Stridsfordon 90 CV9040. Source: Wikipedia

Sweden’s minority government and political opposition Alliance bloc have agreed to a new defense deal that will provide SEK8.1 billion ($1 billion) in additional funding for the country’s broad security needs over the upcoming three-year period through 2020. The agreement bolsters spending on the Swedish military (which will receive SEK6.8 billion – or $841 million – worth of the additional funding) and civil defense (SEK1.3 billion, or $160 million). Continue reading

Turkmenistan Wary of Afghan Border

by Derek Bisaccio, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov steps out of a truck and, after posing for pictures, takes aim at several targets, first with a rifle, then a handgun, and lastly throwing knives. He then calls in helicopter strikes during the military exercise. The video, which first aired on Turkmen State TV, gained prominence after the Chronicles of Turkmenistan, a dissident website, satirized the original by editing in clips of Arnold Schwarzenegger in Commando, a 1985 movie. Continue reading

Airborne Retrofit & Modernization Highlights – 8/14/17 Edition

by Matthew Beres, Airborne Retrofit & Modernization Analyst, Forecast International.

KC-10 Refueling Mission
Source: U.S. Navy

This blog post briefly highlights recent Airborne Retrofit & Modernization news.  The Retrofit and Modernization market forecast provides comprehensive coverage of major airframe, propulsion, electronics, and armament programs for military, commercial, and civil aircraft markets. These programs are broken down into their major component categories, including a detailed quantitative data set, buttressed by greater qualitative economic updates and analyses.  More in-depth news can be found in Forecast’s E-Market Alert. To the minute R&M news can also be found via the Forecast R&M twitter account, @MBeresFI. Continue reading

Forecast International Launches Improved U.S. Defense Budget Database

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

Source: Forecast International’s U.S. Defense Budget Forecast

Forecast International is pleased to announce the launch of a newly enhanced U.S. Defense Budget Forecast database, now featuring the ability to track major program spending and identify winners and losers within every Pentagon budget request.  FI’s budget database provides quick access to DoD request and forecast budget data, justification documents, congressional markups, and more.  The Pentagon’s massive weapons spending plan can be sorted by value, with options for filtering programs by appropriation title (R1/P1), service, and appropriation account.       Continue reading

Dolphins in Trouble

by Stuart Slade, Senior Naval Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

Dolphin-Class Submarine. Source: IDF Navy

With the original group of Dolphin-class submarines designed to have a hull life of 30 years and a design initiation-to-commissioning cycle of at least 10-15 years, attention turned to designing replacements for the first three submarines in 2015.  At first, Israeli ambitions seemed somewhat excessive, with references to “an entirely different submarine from the Dolphin or the Dolphin AIP.” Reality appears to have set in, however, with attention now focused on an upgraded version of the Flight II Dolphin class that includes “some room for growth, with new materials, better sonar … but pretty much the same design.” Continue reading

Boeing on a Roll; Both Civil and Military Markets Remain Strong

by Edward Nebinger, Forecast International.

Boeing’s KC-46 Pegasus tanker program will be a key revenue driver for the firm. Image: Boeing

Recent reports of significant layoffs by Boeing have proven to be of little concern to Wall Street investors, who shrugged those actions off as an efficiency move. Not only that, Boeing stock rose dramatically to a new high last week, and during a two-day period jumped 28 points, sending the Dow Jones Average to a new all-time high. Continue reading