After Counterinsurgency Victory, Syria Looks to Rearm

by Derek Bisaccio, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov in November 2017. Source: Russian Presidency website

More than seven years after domestic protests broke out against the Syrian government and President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian military, with Iranian and Russian backing, has achieved victory over insurgent forces. Pockets of anti-government forces certainly remain, including in the southwest and southeast of Syria, as well as the province of Idlib in the northwest, and a large question mark hangs over the future of the Syrian government’s relations with the U.S.-protected People’s Protection Units (known by the Kurdish acronym YPG) and of portions of rebel territory where Turkey has deployed troops. Nevertheless, the war for the ouster of President Assad is at its conclusion. Continue reading

Congress Releases FY19 Defense Policy Bill

by Shaun McDougall, Military Markets AnalystForecast International.

USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) and USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) conduct strike group operations.
Source: U.S. Navy

U.S. House and Senate lawmakers completed the conference markup of the FY19 defense authorization bill on July 23.  The defense policy bill adheres to the spending levels agreed upon in the bipartisan budget act, providing a defense base budget of $639.1 billion.  That figure comprises $616.9 billion in discretionary funding for the Department of Defense, $21.9 billion for nuclear programs in the Department of Energy, and around $300 million for defense-related activities outside the DoD.  Another $69 billion is provided for Overseas Contingency Operations, for a total of $708.1 billion in discretionary defense spending.  When including $8.9 billion in mandatory spending, the FY19 topline authorized in the legislation totals $717 billion.  The separate congressional appropriations process will finalize how much money the military actually has available to spend in FY19.

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President Trump Touts an Air Traffic Control System that Is Similar to Canada’s

by Greg Giaquinto, Electronic Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

Air Traffic Control Radar. Source: Pixnio

U.S. President Donald Trump wants to relinquish America’s air traffic control (ATC) system to a private, nonprofit entity with its own board comprising airlines, unions, airports, and federal officials, according to Wired.  In essence, Mr. Trump wants to privatize ATC to look something like a corporation.  This would be similar to Canada’s ATC system.  Continue reading

Biggest Sales Haul in Five Years at 2018 Farnborough Airshow

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Boeing 777. Source: Boeing

The recently concluded Farnborough International Airshow generated an impressive number of orders and other purchase commitments (options, letters of intent, Memoranda of Understanding, etc.) for the world’s commercial aircraft manufacturers.  Aircraft orders and commitments totaled more than 1,400, outpacing recent Farnborough shows and even the last two Paris Air Shows (2017 and 2015).  One would have to go back to the 2013 Paris show to find a bigger sales haul at an international air show. Continue reading

The U.S. Defense Budget: Balancing Need Against Cost

by Greg Giaquinto, Electronic Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

According to The Guardian, President Donald Trump’s call for a major boost in U.S. military spending has been met with an uproar from opponents warning that such a policy would waste millions of taxpayer dollars.  To lend perspective on the issue, in fiscal year 2015, military spending in the United States accounted for 54 percent of all federal discretionary spending, according to the Institute for Policy Studies.  Right now the U.S. military has the ability to fight just under two world wars simultaneously.  The International Institute for Strategic Studies says the U.S. accounts for more than a third of the world’s military spending. Continue reading

Remote Sensing Satellite Market Takes Off, Driven by SmallSat Deliveries

by Bill Ostrove, Space Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

JPSS-1 meteorological satellite. Source: NOAA

Annual deliveries of remote sensing satellites are increasing at high rates. Only 18 remote sensing satellites launched in 2013, but 177 were launched in 2017.

This trend can be expected to continue. During the 2018-2032 forecast period, civil and commercial satellite operators will take delivery of 3,979 satellites, representing an estimated $39 billion in value of production. Continue reading

More than 29,000 Large Jetliners to be Built over 15 Years

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace AnalystForecast International.

Data from Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System 4.0 indicate that 29,407 large commercial jet transports will be produced in the 15-year period from 2018 through 2032.  The value of this production is estimated at $4.73 trillion in constant 2018 U.S. dollars. Continue reading

Airbus and Boeing Report June 2018 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Deliveries

Both Companies Report Solid Order Haul Ahead of Farnborough IAS 2018

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent, Forecast International.

On June 22, Airbus reported that Greece’s biggest airline, Aegean, had firmed up an order for the purchase of 20 A320neo and 10 A321neo jets. The deal follows an earlier MoU signed in March 2018. The order was just one of many sizable Boeing and Airbus bookings in June.
Photo: Airbus SAS

Boeing and Airbus delivered 82 and 80 commercial jets in June 2018, respectively, compared to 75 and 64 deliveries during the same month last year. June is traditionally a busy month for deliveries. Of key importance for Airbus, its persistent troubles with insufficient engine deliveries appear to be easing. In 2017, Boeing delivered 763 jets (748 in 2016), in line with company expectations, while Airbus surpassed its delivery target of 700 jets by handing over 718 aircraft during 2017 (688 in 2016).

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*Thursday Update* Boeing’s Farnborough Orders Tallies

by Douglas Royce, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Boeing 737 MAXs. Photo: The Boeing Co

Boeing announced a mix of aircraft deals during the Farnborough Air Show.  Some of the deals were new, others were previously announced by Boeing without identifying the customer.

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*Thursday Update* Airbus’ Orders at Farnborough; Scores Commitment for A220s

by Douglas Royce, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Airbus A220-300.

Airbus announced large orders for the very popular A320neo narrowbody airliner at the Farnborough Air Show along with new orders for the larger A350 XWB widebody and a commitment for the A220.   We don’t expect to see any orders for the A380 at the show.

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