CFM56 Cements Venerable Status with 30,000 Engines Delivered

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

CFM56

CFM56

As the CFM56 passes the baton to the next-generation LEAP engine, it is only fitting to take a look back at such a prolific turbine. Passing a major milestone in October 2016, CFM announced that it had delivered its 30,000th CFM56 engine. Although the engine remains in production for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 family of aircraft, output is forecast to decline to a relatively low number beginning in 2020. Continue reading

Mosul Offensive a Test for Iraqi Forces

by Derek Bisaccio, Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi (R) meets with U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter (L) in Baghdad, October 22, 2016. Source: U.S. Department of Defense

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi (R) meets with U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter (L) in Baghdad, October 22, 2016. Source: U.S. Department of Defense

Early on October 17, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced that the much-anticipated operation to retake Mosul from the Islamic State had finally begun. “The hour has come and the moment of great victory is near,” he declared on national TV, thereby setting off the offensive that Iraq’s military and allied militias – backed by international airpower – have been preparing for ever since I.S. forces swept into Mosul over two years ago. Continue reading

Rafale and M88 Gaining Traction on the Export Market

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

Dassault Rafale

Dassault Rafale

From Bleriot’s cross-channel flight to the Concorde’s cross-Atlantic dash, the French have long been at the forefront of aviation. Indeed, the Montgolfier brothers were the first to fly into the heavens as early as 1783. But, then again, the Concorde was not wholly a French product. And, that raises an interesting question:  Do the French still have this penchant for flying or have the realities of modern aircraft development left them behind? Continue reading

T55 Soldiers On Aboard Venerable CH-47 Chinook

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

Boeing CH-47F Chinook

Boeing CH-47F Chinook

When an aviation platform passes 50 years of continuous military service, it joins a prestigious, albeit small, group of aircraft. The group gets significantly smaller when another proviso is added, that of being in current production. The Boeing CH-47 Chinook is a member of this elite group, and its august Honeywell T55 gas turbine engine has been with the platform from the beginning. Continue reading

Jordan Fills the Gaps, Purchasing and Enhancing Venerable FPS-117 and TPS-77 Radars

by C. Zachary Hofer, Electronic Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

Lockheed Martin TPS-77 Radar.  Source: Lockheed Martin.

Lockheed Martin TPS-77 Radar. Source: Lockheed Martin.

On behalf of Jordan, the U.S. Air Force has awarded Lockheed Martin of Syracuse, New York, a not-to-exceed $41.7 million, firm-fixed-price, undefinitized FMS contract (FA8730-17-C-0005) to procure, deliver, and install the “gap filler radar.” Under the terms of the contract, Lockheed Martin will provide two long-range radars, plus three upgrades to existing long-range radars.  Additionally, the company will integrate the new and upgraded radar into Jordan’s overall command, control and communications system. Continue reading

COMAC Slowly Ramps Up ARJ21 Production

by Douglas Royce, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

COMAC's ARJ21. Source: COMAC

COMAC’s ARJ21.   Source: COMAC

COMAC’s ARJ21-700 program delivered its second aircraft to launch customer Chengdu Airlines in October 2016. The company delivered the airline’s first aircraft in November 2015, but it did not enter service until the following June. A slow ramp-up in production will follow as COMAC works with operators to resolve problems that are bound to crop up after an aircraft enters service. Continue reading

Short-Term Growth, Longer-Term Decline Projected for Light Military Rotorcraft Market

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

H145M in flight (© Copyright Airbus Helicopters, Charles Abarr)

Airbus Helicopters H145M in flight (© Copyright Airbus Helicopters, Charles Abarr)

Forecast International is projecting that 1,241 light military rotorcraft will be produced by manufacturers during the 10-year period from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production is estimated at $19.7 billion, as calculated in constant 2016 U.S. dollars.  We define a light military rotorcraft as one having a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). Continue reading

Boeing, Airbus Tied at 380 Net Orders Each – Surge in A320ceo Cancellations

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

On September 27, 2016, Boeing booked an order for 25 737 MAX 8 jets for Chinese carrier Donghai Airlines - based in Shenzhen (intent to place order announced at Farnborough International Air Show in July). Photo: The Boeing Company

On September 27, 2016, Boeing booked an order for 25 737 MAX 8 jets for Chinese carrier Donghai Airlines – based in Shenzhen (intent to place order announced at Farnborough International Air Show in July).
Photo: The Boeing Company

Boeing and Airbus delivered 72 and 62 commercial jets in September 2016, compared to 77 and 49 during the same month last year, respectively. As of September 30, 2016, Boeing is trailing last year’s delivery figures with 563 (580 in 2015) commercial jets delivered, which is in line with company expectations. Airbus, on the other hand, has delivered 462 jets to date and is 16 deliveries ahead of last year. Continue reading

LMZ a Major Player in Russia’s Power Machines

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

Steam Turbine Production at LMZ.

Steam Turbine Production at LMZ.

On the banks of the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia sits an industrial entity that has shaped power production in the former Soviet Union for decades. LMZ (Leningradsky Metallichesky Zavod), founded in 1857, is the largest division of Power Machines. Continue reading

Popularity of PGMs Continues to Rise

by Larry Dickerson, Missile Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

Storm Shadow cruise missile. Source: MBDA

Storm Shadow cruise missile. Source: MBDA

In its recently updated “The Market for Strike Missiles” analysis, Forecast International notes the steadily increasing use of precision-guided munitions in military operations. During Operation Desert Storm, PGMs made up only 10 percent of the total air-launched weapons used. The figure increased to 31 percent after the United States launched Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003). The use of PGMs reached a pinnacle during NATO’s air campaign over Libya in 2011: 100 percent of the munitions expended were precision guided. Continue reading