Antonov Becomes Cornerstone of New Ukrainian Aircraft Corp

by Richard Pettibone, Aerospace & Defense Companies Analyst, Forecast International.

Antonov An-32

Antonov An-32 (U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Brian Ferguson)

Under the aegis of Ukraine’s state-owned defense conglomerate Ukroboronprom, Antonov is rapidly becoming the focal point of the country’s aviation industry.

The new ownership has not been idle with its acquisition. In June 2016, Ukroboronprom consolidated its aerospace holdings into a new Ukrainian Aircraft Corp centered on Antonov.  This new group is aimed at helping the nation’s aviation industry to develop and to integrate into the global market.  Further, the cluster will also help reduce redundancy in production, planning, procurement and marketing among its various operations.  Perhaps most importantly, the formation of this corporation will help Ukraine sever ties with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp. Continue reading

As Combat Aircraft Fleet Atrophies, Sri Lanka Seeks New Fighters

by Dan Darling, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Kfir fighter

Kfir fighter

A single Israeli-built Kfir fighter was purchased in 1995. That lone aircraft represents all that remains of Sri Lanka’s operational jet fighter fleet. After a 26-year war against Tamil Tiger insurgents and a failed $400 million bid last summer to purchase eight JF-17s from Pakistan (the failure stemming in part from Indian diplomatic intervention against the deal), Sri Lanka’s Air Force finds itself in a desperate situation as it seeks to protect the national airspace and claims to the offshore exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Continue reading

Russia Deploys Bombers to Iranian Air Base

by Derek Bisaccio, Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Russian Su-34 jet. Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

Russian Su-34 jet. Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

In a significant development for the conflict in Syria and for the Middle East generally, Russia has deployed a number of bombers to an air base in western Iran. The bombers – Tu-22M3s and Su-34s – will conduct airstrikes from the Hamedan air base against militant groups in Syria, in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces. Continue reading

Argentina’s Defense Spending to Climb, Even as Government Tackles Deficit

by Bill Ostrove, International Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Argentina IA-58 Pucara

Argentina IA-58 Pucara

While Argentina does not face the same level of internal and external threats that some other Latin American countries do, defense spending has steadily increased in terms of Argentinean pesos.  Both Kirchner administrations were somewhat amenable to increasing defense spending.  Furthermore, President Néstor Kirchner made revitalization of the nation’s defense industry a priority, and a significant portion of the extra funds were directed toward this end.  The extra allocations were divided equally among the three services. Continue reading

GE Leads Marine Gas Turbine Market, But Rivals Challenge Position

by Stuart Slade, I&M Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

General Electric LM 2500

General Electric LM 2500

The startling thing about the marine gas turbine market is that only three companies maintain a significant market presence. Since gas turbines came to dominate the warship propulsion sector in the 1980s, the major players have absorbed the minor ones, resulting in the present level of market centralization.

The key players in the marine gas turbine market are GE, Rolls-Royce, and Zorya-Mashproekt. GE is the undoubted leader with nearly half the market. It owes this position to its virtual monopoly of the U.S. Navy market during the 1980s and 1990s.  Until very recently, every U.S. Navy surface combatant was powered by GE LM2500 gas turbines.  This monopoly position is now being challenged by Rolls-Royce, currently the second supplier in terms of market share but whose MT30 Marine Trent gas turbine is winning growing acceptance. The MT30 was selected for the DDG-1000 missile destroyer and the LCS-1 Littoral Combat Ship, and there are rumors that future groups of the DDG-51 destroyer might use the MT30 as well. Meanwhile, the follow-on to the LCAC, the Ship-to-Shore Connector, will use Rolls-Royce MT7 gas turbines.  The battle between GE and Rolls-Royce will be profoundly important to the entire naval shipbuilding industry.

The third participant, Zorya-Mashproekt, offers a range of gas turbines derived from those used to power Soviet warships during the Cold War.  The political problems in Ukraine mean that most Zorya sales are currently achieved by way of licensed producers in China and India.  Once these problems are resolved, Zorya is likely to regain its full market impact.

This market assessment of the marine gas turbine sector is based on the Forecast International Industrial and Marine Gas Turbine Database, a comprehensive listing of more than 41,150 gas turbine installations, of which 3,916 (9.51 percent) are marine gas turbines used for propulsion and 933 (2.27 percent) are gas turbines used for onboard power generation. The Industrial and Marine Gas Turbine Database is a unique reference source that contains details of every propulsion gas turbine that has ever been installed in a warship.

For the full report, click here.

Please feel free to use this content with Forecast International and analyst attributions, along with a link to the article. Contact Ray Peterson at +1 (203) 426-0800 or via email at ray.peterson@forecast1.com for additional analysis.


With over 70 engine program reports – from 1,200 kW to over 300 MW, Forecast International’s Industrial & Marine Turbine Forecast provides the tools required to make informed strategic decisions in an expanding marketplace. This service features five Market Segment Analyses covering Microturbines, Mechanical Drive Engines, Electrical Power Generation, Marine Power, and Steam Turbines for Combined-Cycle Installation. Included among the eight appendices are a breakout of consolidated production statistics and a directory of Industrial & Marine manufacturers and packagers.

Forecast FI Logo

United States Withholds Military Reimbursement Funding for Pakistan

by Derek Bisaccio, Military Markets Analyst, Forecast International.

Pakistani military officials meet following deadly blasts in Quetta. Source

Pakistani military officials meet following deadly blasts in Quetta. Source.

On August 3, The Washington Post reported that the United States had decided to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance to Pakistan after the Pentagon assessed that the Pakistani government had not taken sufficient action against the Haqqani network. Continue reading

Airbus Beats Boeing at Farnborough – Closes Gap in Orders Race

by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent.

On July 13, 2016, Synergy Aerospace (owner of Avianca) placed an order for 62 A320neo jets. Photo Courtesy: Airbus SAS

On July 13, 2016, Synergy Aerospace (owner of Avianca) placed an order for 62 A320neo jets.
Photo Courtesy: Airbus SAS

Airbus comfortably won the orders race at the Farnborough International Air Show with 279 orders and commitments, ahead of Boeing’s 182. Both companies stated they were on track to meet their targets of matching orders with deliveries this year as the industry prepares for a period of flatter growth after the order boom in recent years.

Continue reading

The $634 Million Maneuver Control System – Keeping Army Warfighters In the Loop

by Greg Giaquinto, Electronic Systems Analyst, Forecast International.

U.S. Army's Maneuver Control System

U.S. Army’s Maneuver Control System.  Source: globalsecurity.org

The U.S. Army’s Maneuver Control System is an essential component of the service’s Battle Command System, providing critical coordination among Battlefield Functional Areas, or BFAs. The BFAs that pertain to the MCS are Maneuver, Fire Support, Air Defense, Combat Service Support, and Intelligence/Electronic Warfare. A prime element of the MCS is a situation map – part of the Common Operation Picture, or COP – that displays, via use of data from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s Defense Mapping Agency, the locations of friendly and enemy units; intelligence, electronic warfare and fire support graphics; and air corridor information. Continue reading

KC-390 Key to Long-Term V2500 Engine Production

by Carter Palmer, Power Systems Specialist, Forecast International.

IAE V2500 Gas Turbine

IAE V2500 Gas Turbine

Along with the orders for new aircraft that poured in at last month’s Farnborough Air Show, selections were also made, where available, for the engines that will power them. Both the new and the old had a place in the sun, a prime example being the A320 series of aircraft. The much-publicized A320neo (New Engine Option) line of aircraft accrued many orders, as did the A320ceo (Current Engine Option). Continue reading

World Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market on the Decline

By Ray Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst, Forecast International.

Bell Boeing V-22

Bell Boeing V-22

Forecast International expects that 4,791 medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced from 2016 through 2025.  The value of this production, as calculated in constant FY16 U.S. dollars, is $115.7 billion.

Through most of the 10-year forecast period, the market will experience declining annual production.  Yearly production is expected to decline nearly steadily from 578 units in 2016 to 410 units in 2025.  Annual production value during this timeframe is expected to follow a somewhat similar trend.  Annual value is projected to decrease from $14.1 billion in 2016 to $10.4 billion in 2025, with this decline interrupted only by a brief two-year period of growth in 2022-2023. Continue reading